Ebola fear. Hoax explained

In my three previous posts (“EBOLA. FACTS, SPECULATIONS AND LIES“, “AND THE EBOLA HOAX CONTINUES…“, “EBOLA EMERGENCY HOAX. BUSTED!“) I pointed out how the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, while actually being a grave concern for the local population, is not a global emergency and it is a media manufactured fear factor.

On the 26th of September there were forecasted 1,400.000 Ebola cases in 4 months. On the 10th of October 10,000 new weekly Ebola cases were forecasted. All that, by twisting the data produced by the WHO.

 This is the reason I call it an HOAX.Fear-Is-A-Lie

The WHO has just released a new report that confirms a “steady” trend for the Ebola outbreaks in the three most risky countries, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.

guinea

liberia_1910

sierraleone

As you can see, Sierra Leone shows signs of stabilization of the outbreaks even if yet the figure is far from a decreasing trend and it still appears to be the Country raising more concerns; in the case of Guinea the outbreak is steady at roughly 100 new cases per week; in the case of Liberia the number of weekly cases is decreasing and the number of “confirmed” ones is already very low.

If we take in consideration only the confirmed cases, the compound figure (below) shows a converging pattern around the cumulative figure of 450 new weekly cases, most of them concentrated in Sierra Leone. In the picture I took in consideration the trend starting from the 1st of June for simplicity.

ebola_cases

It is likely that, while we can have in coming weeks occasional spikes, the trend will be decreasing. And there is no reason, at all, to assume that in less then 10 weeks we can move from a figure of roughly 500 weekly cases to 10,000 (20x times); the historical trend does not support this “estimate” and recent development leads in a different direction.

You may have noticed that the histograms produced by the WHO in its latest buletin take in consideration also probable and possible cases. This is, in a way, correct, qualitatively but not quantitatively. But they help to keep fear high, and it will be more clear what I mean, in few passages.

Below a table extracted from the WHO buletin (19th October):

tableFirst thing you’ll notice is that there is a huge discrepancy between the “confirmed” figure and the overall figure collecting also suspect and probable cases. The more comprehensive figure actually is useful to have an idea of the problem relevance, but in quantitative terms it makes a very bad job in depicting the trend of the outbreaks.

You’ll notice one thing (maybe); in Liberia the cumulative figure of Ebola deaths outnumbers the cumulative figure of Ebola confirmed cases; 1241/965 is 129%.

How is it possible? The reason is simple; the deaths of probable and suspect cases are screened for Ebola, days after the deaths happened and if the screening is positive they increase the number of Ebola confirmed deaths but not the number of “confirmed” cases. Bad accounting? Probably there is no bad will, but it must be clear that if they did the job correctly the figure of confirmed cases would be higher in past weeks and the decreasing trend of the Ebola oubreak (especially in Liberia) even more evident.

You may wonder: “how likey is a probable or suspect case to be a confirmed case?” This is a legitimate question, since as you can spot in the Liberia case the high number of suspect + probable cases do not translates in confirmed cases. Why?

The answer is not that hard and “deaths” will help us. If we compare the figure of this latest buletin (19th October) with the one issued on the 24th of September, we’ll notice the following:

  • Cumulative confirmed ebola cases increased by 8,4%, while confirmed ebola deaths increased by 85%
  • Cumulative probable ebola cases increased by 43,4%, while probable ebola deaths increased by 35%
  • Cumulative suspect ebola cases increased by 73%, while suspect ebola deaths increased by 60%

Why the number of confirmed Ebola deaths increases at a rate 10 times higher than the rate of confirmed Ebola cases, while the probable and suspcet cases increase at a lower rate (80%) than the probable and suspect Ebola deaths? It is because, once a supsect or probable death case is confirmed to be due to Ebola infection, it moves into the confirmed Ebola deaths toll.

This means that roughly 20% of suspects and probable Ebola deaths become confirmed Ebola deaths. It is reasonable to assume, thus, that roughly 20% of probable and suspect cases are actually Ebola cases.

Is this 20% a certain figure? No, but it is very indicative.

Some may argue that “not all suspect and probable cases” have been screened. Most likely. But if you make the same exercise I presented, by comparing the buletin of the 19th of October with the one issued on the 8th of October, and the latter one with the one issued on the 24th of September, you’ll get consistent results.

So, even if the figure of 20% might not be 100% accurate, it is highly likely  that only a minority of probable and suspect cases are actually Ebola cases.

So why the media, and some WHO high rank representatives, keep spreading FEAR talking about an exponential growth that it is not happening? I’ll try to explain it with two pictures, because pictures are worth a million words.AMI

Above, the price development of the shares of African Mineral, a company mining precious minerals in Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia. Since the beginning of the year it has lost 91,6% of value on London Exchange. Those familiar with finance will spot the high volume of transactions at the end of Septemeber, when the CDC/WHO opened the door to vacinations.Newlink

Above, the price development of the shares of NewLink Genetics Corporation, a BioTech company owning some of the patents needed for vacines and pharmaceutical products considered by the WHO. Since June it has increased the value of its shares by almost 100% at the Wall Street Stock Exchange (Nasdaq). Those familiar with finance will spot the high volume of transactions (after the pitfall of stock exchanges, at the beginning of October) in the last week, in concomitance with the Ebola case at new York.

Fear is a lie, finance tells the truth.

Annunci